Severe Weather Threatens New Rochelle and Wider New York Metropolitan Area, Flooding, Tornadoes Possible

Written By: Talk of the Sound News

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High Winds Knocking Down Trees throughout New Rochelle. Trees Falling on Wires, especially North End of New Rochelle. New Rochelle Fire Department is urging caution. Tornado Warnings! Actual Tornado in Brooklyn! Be Careful!!!

Con Edison, as of 4:04 PM ET 4:21 PM ET 7:25 PM ET
Total Con Ed Outages: 72 75 146
Total Customers Effected 341 347 2,424
Westchester Customers Out: 65 59 1002
New Rochelle Customers Out 17 17 0

Loring Avenue 2, Arbor Drive 15

A large branch fell on wire at the corner of Hutchison Boulevard and Cerreta Lane, downing two wires and causing a transformer to explode. The homeowner heard a large explosion and her power went out. A small fire broke out, NRFD, NRPD and Con Ed were called to the scene.

More lines down on Paine Avenue due to tree damage from high winds.

New Rochelle, along with the entire New York Metropolitan area is under a severe weather watch for Saturday September 8, 2012.

URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN… KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK… SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK… BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK… NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK… QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK…

* UNTIL NOON EDT…

* AT 959 AM EDT… A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS… HIGHWAYS… STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF THE FLOODING THREAT INCREASES… OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED

National Weather Service

Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 081247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

VALID 081300Z – 091200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY…ERN PA…CNTRL/SRN VT…SWRN
NH…WRN/CNTRL MA/CT…NERN MD…NJ…AND NRN DE…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS…

–REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES–

…SYNOPSIS…

EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH…THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
THIS PERIOD IS A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 70-90 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE NERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK TRANSLATING
EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO OH
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS…SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SWRN ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN
WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD INTO QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SEWD/SWD TO OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS…AND INTO THE NRN
FL PENINSULA BY 09/12Z.

…NERN U.S. INTO CAROLINAS…

LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS SEEN IN MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUXES AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS/ WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING INTO ERN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PROCESS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/ AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

THE STRONGLY FORCED NATURE OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WITH
REGARD TO STORM EVOLUTION AND DOMINANT MODE. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS INTO A QLCS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NY/PA TO NRN VA. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS WHICH
REVEALED LITTLE OR NO CAP AND AN ALREADY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NRN PORTION OF MODERATE
RISK AREA…TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. WHEN COUPLED WITH 50-60
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…SETUP WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIAL-TYPE DERECHO EVENT…CHARACTERIZED BY
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS.

TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE THE NRN EXTENSION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALIGNS WITH A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
200-300+ M2 PER S2/. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MODULATED BY
THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES AND SHALLOWER MESOVORTICES.

BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES
WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CNTRL VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER…THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ WILL PROMOTE THE EVOLUTION
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH A
RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Con Edison Urges Customers to Prepare for Severe Storms

NEW YORK – Con Edison crews are preparing to respond to any outages that occur today due to the severe storms expected to hit New York City and Westchester County. The company reminds customers to take safety precautions and avoid any downed power lines.

Customers can report downed power lines, outages and check service restoration status online by computer, cell phone, or PDAs at www.conEd.com. They can also call 1-800-75CONED (1-800-752-6633). When reporting an outage, have your Con Edison account number available, if possible, and report whether your neighbors have also lost power.

Depending on the severity of storm damage, crews will give priority to restoring service lines that will provide power to the most customers as quickly as possible, then move on to restore smaller groups and individual customers who are without power.

Con Edison offers the following safety tips:

§ If you see downed electrical wires, do not go near them. Treat all downed wires as if they are live. Never attempt to move them or touch them with any object. Be mindful that downed wires can be hidden from view by snow, tree limbs, leaves or water.

§ Report all downed wires to Con Edison and your local police department immediately. If a power line falls on your car while you’re in it, stay inside the vehicle and wait for emergency personnel.

§ If your power goes out, disconnect or turn off appliances that would otherwise turn on automatically when service is restored. If several appliances start up at once, the electric circuits may overload.

§ Check to make sure your flashlights and any battery-operated radios are in working order. Make sure you have a supply of extra batteries. Weather updates and news on restorations of electrical service can be heard on most local radio and television stations.

§ For more storm tips and preparation, go to www.conEd.com.

In addition, the company is in close contact with the New York City Office of Emergency Management and the Westchester County Department of Emergency Services to coordinate storm-response if needed.